Iran Makes A Bold Regional Move

Iran’s view of Pakistan as a “pro-American” state has to be modified in the light of what India — a “non-aligned” entity not long ago — has managed to accomplish with its nuclear deal with America. The visiting Iranian Energy Minister Mr Parviz Fattah assured President Asif Ali Zardari on Tuesday that Iran was willing to supply more oil on deferred payment to help Pakistan solve its balance of payment problems. The prime minister’s adviser on petroleum, Dr Asim Hussain, visiting Tehran, has said that Iran would supply 50,000 barrels of crude per day on 90-day deferred payment. This would be an improvement on 10,000 barrels of crude oil per day supplied to Pakistan by Iran on 30-day deferred payment.Another report says Iran will export to Pakistan 1,000MW of electricity from a gas-fired plant it will build near its border with Pakistan. An Iranian company would also construct a transmission line of 50km on the Iranian side and 70km on the Pakistani side. The minister for water and power, Raja Pervez Ashraf, said on Tuesday that he would look into the two delayed projects with Iran: the import of 1,000MW of power for the Gwadar Port construction of transmission line, and feasibility study for 1,000MW transmission line between Zahidan (Iran) and Quetta (Pakistan).These are bold moves by Tehran which so far didn’t mind too much that Iran’s projects with Pakistan were hanging fire without progress since the Islamic Revolution broke away from the Turkey-Iran-Pakistan ECO (Economic Cooperation Organisation). More pointedly, Tehran had seen the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) project run aground because of Iran’s hesitations on pricing its gas and India’s strategic partnership with America. Indeed, Iran’s inward-looking worldview prevented it from seeking a more “inclusive” regional arrangement while it looked to exporting a more “intrusive” revolution.That Tehran is thinking on new lines may be a correct assumption after its latest move to sell oil to Pakistan on deferred payment when the rest of the oil cartel is cutting back on production and slashing export. Its attitude to illegal Pakistanis captured on its side of the border has been remarkably benign in contrast to India’s conduct in the east of Pakistan. It has been responsible for the delay, together with India, in the starting up of the IPI project which would have transformed Pakistan and changed the regional power pattern in favour of Iran. Is something about to change?Iran has responded to Pakistan’s request that it should reconsider the IPI pipeline as a Pakistan-dedicated project, now that India has virtually abandoned it, with a pledge to speed up the ongoing process of price-setting begun once again on Iran’s insistence earlier this year. We hope that this process is completed soon and the Iran-Pakistan equation is taken up to a new level. Pakistan’s willingness to become dependent on Iran for energy is a very significant strategic element that departs from the pattern of “dependencies” Iran has developed in the Middle East, especially with Syria, Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.Economic dependence is more powerful in the end than military dependence. Conflict may abate because it is unnatural but trade grows instead of tapering off. Military dependency may be temporarily important but trade dependency tends to deepen and affects crucial decisions in times of conflict. It is recognised by all that trade dependency is obstructive of war. And Iran, threatened from the outside with war, needs a trade-based relationship in the region. West Europe’s dependence on the Russian gas affects the foreign policy projections of the European Union and puts pressure on NATO where America loses its “directive” power to some extent.Iran’s view of Pakistan as a “pro-American” state has to be modified in the light of what India — a “non-aligned” entity not long ago — has managed to accomplish with its nuclear deal with America. By becoming America’s strategic partner and accepting the Hyde Act in the US Congress as the “enabling legislation”, India has had to say goodbye to the IPI. Pakistan’s equation with Iran has always had an extra dimension to it. Its relationship with the US can never destroy the cultural nexus the Pakistanis feel with Iran. And a trade relationship will only make it more concrete. The immediate programme is to link the province of Balochistan to Iran through transmission lines. The IPI must follow as the bigger challenge.To dismiss the IPI as a non-starter because Pakistan can’t control its Balochistan terrain is a negative approach. By finalising the IPI — it could now be simply IP — Iran will put Pakistan under challenge to pacify Balochistan or starve without gas and electricity in the years to come. Pakistan needs life-and-death challenges to wake up from its reluctance to face reality. Once the IP is in place, there is a 90 percent chance that India will rejoin at a later stage, so tough are the energy alternatives for it. Iran will be in South Asia as a player without being a member of SAARC. No other extra-regional state has this kind of opportunity. And this development will be in favour of peace, not war. *